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Posted on • Originally published at nydar.co.uk

13,500 Model Fits Later: What Actually Works in Crypto ML

We ran 30+ experiments across 10 cryptocurrencies to find what actually predicts price movements. Here's what survived — and what didn't.

The Setup

  • 10 cryptocurrencies tested: BTC, ETH, SOL, and 7 altcoins
  • 3 timeframes: 1-hour, 4-hour, and daily candles
  • Binary classification: Predict up or down by at least 0.5%
  • Walk-forward validation: Model never sees future data

What Won

Model Accuracy Verdict
XGBoost (aggressive tuning) 54-56% Winner
LSTM 51-54% Rejected
Transformer 49-52% Rejected

Read the full analysis with all 30+ experiments on our blog.

Originally published at nydar.co.uk


Originally published at Nydar. Nydar is a free trading platform with AI-powered signals and analysis.

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